Subsidence describes the sinking of the ground. This can be caused by natural geological processes such as erosion, earthquakes, or droughts. However, anthropogenic factors usually predominate. Groundwater depletion (e.g., through continuous groundwater extraction) combined with droughts is of particular importance. As a result, the aquifers become permanently sealed off from replenishment by precipitation. The consequences are, on one hand, increased water stress and, on the other, a growing risk of flooding and flood disasters. In addition, subsidence can damage buildings and infrastructure (e.g., the power supply).
Our risk assessment is based on a global data set that reflects the current and future probability of land subsidence. For the modeling, we include various variables, including land use, climatological conditions, population density, and groundwater storage.