K.A.R.L.®-Natural Hazard Analysis – FAQs
- Definitions and general information
What is K.A.R.L.®?
K.A.R.L.® (Köln.Assekuranz Risiko Lösungen) is a globally applicable analysis tool for the location-specific and object-related identification, calculation and quantification of risks caused by natural hazards (e.g. flood, heavy rain, earthquake, storm, tornado and hail). The K.A.R.L.® system has been developed and widely used by experienced geoscientists of Köln.Assekuranz Agentur since 2008 and offers an established concept for the analysis of natural hazard exposures.
Which natural hazards are being observed?
K.A.R.L.® currently observes the following natural hazards: earthquake, tsunami, volcanism, storm, tornado, storm surge, flood, hail, heavy rain. Climatic conditions and trends are also evaluated and presented. Currently we are working on the integration of climate change impacts, also on the hazards whose consideration is required in the EU taxonomy. All natural hazards can be found here.
How does K.A.R.L.® work?
Based on a given coordinate, K.A.R.L.® first checks which peril could occur at this location. Then, considering environmental conditions (soil properties, rivers, terrain elevation, etc.), a hazard curve is modelled that indicates how often and how severely a particular event could occur. In the final step of the analysis, object- and site-specific factors are taken into account. For example, protective measures against flooding or hail can be entered. In addition, the vulnerability of the object is included in the analysis.
As a result, K.A.R.L.® provides a quantitative assessment of the natural hazard risk situation at the site. Key figures are the annual expected loss (risk p.a./average annual loss) as well as probable maximum losses (Probable Maximum Loss of specific return periods), which can be caused by individual extreme events.
What is the "risk p.a." in K.A.R.L.®?
An essential parameter issued by K.A.R.L.® to describe the hazard situation is the risk p.a. (per annum). The risk per annum is the average annual expected loss value and indicates the proportion of the total value that is statistically lost per year due to damage. This is a purely theoretical value that results when the losses from all natural events from the 1-year to the 10,000-year event are taken into account and averaged over a very long period of time. In the insurance industry, this value is referred to as the average annual loss (AAL).
This damage value is a rather mathematical quantity, but it provides comparability.
What is the PML / Probable Maximum Loss?
The Probable Maximum Loss (PML) is the expected loss for a given return period (RP), e.g. what is the maximum probable loss for a 200-year flood event? The PML is calculated by K.A.R.L.® for all return periods from the 1-year to the 10,000-year event by default.
What is vulnerability?
Vulnerability describes the sensitivity of an object to a natural hazard. For one and the same natural event and at the same location, the risks of two objects of analysis may differ significantly due to different vulnerabilities. For example, detached cars are much more vulnerable to damage from hail than a solidly built house.
There are a number of predefined vulnerabilities in K.A.R.L.® (e.g. different building types, car parking lots, production facilities, etc.). If required, it is possible to develop a new vulnerability adapted to your individual object of investigation.
Does K.A.R.L.® give a probability of occurrence?
No. The question of the probability of occurrence cannot be answered this way for natural hazards. The probability of occurrence of a flood on a river is almost 100 % in an average year. With some certainty, a river will once be above its mean level (=flooding).
Rather, it has to ask specifically about a particular class of event – simplified: What is the probability that a flood will reach my location, and thus a particular water level? Let’s assume a site is at a ground elevation of 50 m above sea level and the modeled water level of a 200-year event is 51 m above sea level. This means that the site would be significantly impacted by a 200-year event (1 m of water on the site).
Unfortunately, nature is not so simple that we can name the probability of occurrence with 1/200, but it is at least a guideline.
What is a return period (RP)?
A return period is a statistical tool used to describe a period of time (of e.g. 50 or 100 years) during which a natural event of a given intensity occurs on average once. RPs are used to categorize the various impacts of natural hazards. For example, the intensity (or damage potential) of an event with a return period of 1-year (also called a 1-year event) is much lower than that of a 100-year (RP: 100 years) event.
However, it is not a correct time specification! On the one hand, it is a theoretical value, because whether a 100-year flood event is really a 100-year event can only be reliably checked after many hundreds of years of measurement (and even then only if parameters such as river bed, water availability, etc. would not change). On the other hand, a 100-year event can also occur several times in 100 years, since it may only occur in a very long period on average every 100 years. Thus, it would take several hundred years to say with certainty whether, for example, an event classified as a 100-year event would have to be reclassified because it occurred twice within 50 years.
Thus, a 100-year event “may” occur more than once in a year and still be a 100-year event.
- K.A.R.L.® reports, portfolio analyses
What are the access options to K.A.R.L.®?
Customers with an existing contract agreement can order K.A.R.L.® analyses via our website or WebApp.
On request, we also offer our customers a variety of individual solutions: From the analysis of portfolios of any size to individual desktop studies and on-site analyses to automated digital interfaces. Feel free to contact us via email: team.karl@koeln-assekuranz.com
If you only require a single K.A.R.L.® site analysis without any further contractual obligations, our sales partner ing+ will be happy to assist you with its WebShop.
What information is needed to request a K.A.R.L.® analysis?
To order a natural hazard analysis, you need to provide the address or geo-coordinates of your object. In addition, a vulnerability matching your object is required. When selecting the vulnerability, the following applies: The more suitable the selected vulnerability is to the sensitivity of the object of analysis, the more the result will be correct. But also: A not quite fitting vulnerability does not lead to “wrong” results. The resulting K.A.R.L.® analysis nevertheless provides information about the hazard situation at a site.
Portfolio analyses also have the option of specifying the object value (or recovery value). By adding the object value, monetary losses can be derived based on the determined risks. This function is not yet available for K.A.R.L.®-Online.
In which format are the results of the natural hazard analysis provided?
The results of the K.A.R.L.® analyses are documented in automatically generated reports which are sent to the customer by email in PDF format. There are several types of reports (e.g. OnePager, Basic report, Pro report), which differ in the amount of information provided.
For portfolio analyses, the results of all locations are summarized in a table in machine-readable formats (MS Excel or CSV lists), which is sent to the customer by email.
Are portfolio queries possible with K.A.R.L.®?
We offer K.A.R.L.® analyses for portfolios of any size. For this purpose, you will receive an input template from us, in which you enter all the necessary information about the objects to be analyzed. After the analysis, you will receive the results in the form of a table (machine-readable, csv), which is sent to the customer by email.
If no information about the coordinates but only addresses of the locations is available, we will take over the geocoding (assignment of coordinates to their addresses) for you.
Are there discount pricing options if several K.A.R.L.® analyses are requested?
Special conditions are available for quantities of 10 or more K.A.R.L.® analyses. Please contact us for a corresponding offer by email to team.karl@koeln-assekuranz.com.
How long is the processing time for a K.A.R.L.® analysis?
For individual queries via K.A.R.L.®-Online, you will receive the result report by email within a few minutes.
For expert activities such as portfolio analyses and particularly detailed manual location analyses, we usually estimate a processing time of approx. 10 working days from the date of order. The exact time required depends on the scope of the portfolio analysis and the address quality.
If you require a climate risk/vulnerability analysis in accordance with the requirements of the EU taxonomy, please contact us by email at team.karl@koeln-assekuranz.com. Due to the scope of the required analyses, elaborate expert analyses are necessary.
How can I order individual analyses without a contractual commitment?
In this case, we would like to refer you to our sales partner ing+.
Your request will be forwarded by ING+ to us via a digital interface.
Who do I contact with questions about my report?
Feel free to look through our FAQs. You will get most of your questions answered here.
We are of course happy to help our customers personally with questions regarding content. However, we ask for your understanding that we cannot answer questions regarding the content of the free trial reports due to capacity constraints. If you are interested in a cooperation and would like to use K.A.R.L.®, we look forward to receiving your email to team.karl@koeln-assekuranz.com.
- EU-Taxonomy and climate change
Can you perform analyses in accordance with the EU taxonomy requirements?
Yes, we offer climate risk and vulnerability analyses according to the requirements of the EU taxonomy 2020/852. We cover all natural hazards listed in Annex A, Table 1.
We are currently in the automation process and still perform the required analyses semi-manually. This increases the processing time, and we can only perform individual analyses. As soon as automation is completed (planned for the end of 2022), we will also be able to analyze large portfolios in a short period of time.
The climate risk and vulnerability analysis is structured as follows: In a Climate Risk Assessment, all natural hazards required by the EU are reviewed in terms of their relevance at the site. If a natural hazard is identified as relevant at the site, it is analyzed and described in more detail in the attached K.A.R.L.® report or climate profile.
Due to the high demand and the complexity of the analysis, a longer processing time is currently required for this special type of analysis. Please contact us for further information.
The climate adaptation solutions also required by the EU taxonomy are not subject of the analyses prepared by K.A.R.L.®. Please contact a building expert or an environmental engineering office.